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美國準總統川普將在白宮新設國家貿易委員會，由對中貿易立場強硬的納瓦洛（Peter Navarro）領軍，對此，中國銀行首席研究員宗良22日受訪研判，納瓦洛上台將給中美經貿帶來不小壓力；川普上台後，中美發生小規模貿易戰在所難免，但「中美都有一手牌，就看怎麼打」。

至於中美若發生貿易戰，受影響產業為何？宗良指出，中國的鋼鐵、輪胎、紡織業等將首當其衝；美國的飛機、農產品進出口也會受到影響。「合者則利，鬥者則害」，川普必須有所考量。

宗良分析，中美經貿所涉利益龐大，不是川普能輕易一刀切，但川普必須信守競選時的承諾，對中國採強硬的經貿措施。因此，他研判中美雖無法避免小規模貿易戰的發生，但中國不會主動出擊，會採較防禦性方式應對。

被問及中美經貿未來的競合，宗良指出，川普競選期間力倡保護主義、美國優先，執行面上不僅有一定程度困難，也不會有效解決國內經濟問題，一環扣一環的結果，回到談判桌上只是時間的問題。

他表示，美國退出「跨太平洋夥伴協定」（TPP），可預見「區域全面經濟夥伴協定」（RCEP）、亞太自貿區（FTAAP）將成主流，加上亞洲未來是全球經濟發展重心，川普必須得正視中美關係共同利益，回歸正常軌道。

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President-elect Donald Trump calls out to media as he greets investor Wilbur Ross as he arrive at the Trump National Golf Club Bedminster clubhouse, Sunday, Nov. 20, 2016, in Bedminster, N.J.. (AP ．．． 較多President-elect Donald Trump calls out to media as he greets investor Wilbur Ross as he arrive at the Trump National Golf Club Bedminster clubhouse, Sunday, Nov. 20, 2016, in Bedminster, N.J.. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster) 較少











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Associated Press | 拍攝者 Carolyn Kaster





2016年11月24日週四 台北標準時間上午4時57分





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